Not Dead Yet

The United States of today is not the United States that emerged victorious at the end of the Cold War. Nor is it the United States that received an outpouring of support and solidarity following the tragic attacks of 9/11. Our standing in the world, our power to advance our interests and our freedom of action are all diminished. Last January, I posted an excellent article by Parag Khanna from the New York Times Magazine that asked whether or not the United States is on the way out as the world’s only superpower. Khanna’s article tackles an issue explored in greater depth by Fareed Zakaria in his book The Post-American World. While I believe it is too early to sound the death knell on the American Age in world history, it is now a question that is receiving serious consideration.

The main reason I believe we need not yet reconcile ourselves to going the way of the British Empire has less to do with hard power than soft power. Despite the fact that our military might is severely constrained by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, our war-waging capabilities still far exceed those of any other country. And while China, India and other countries are rapidly growing in economic power, America’s economy will remain at the center of global trade and investment for many years to come. Nonetheless, our ability to use military and economic power to pursue policy is less than what it was 10 or 15 years ago, and our edge in hard power is likely to shrink further in the coming decades.

I am much more optimistic when it comes to soft power, despite the extent to which that resource has been diminished by the disastrous war in Iraq and the “for us or against us” ethos of the Bush administration. China, the most-cited of our growing rivals, offers an excellent case in point. Despite the rapid expansion of China’s economic might, there are few nations that hope to emulate its society or form of government. Chinese institutions, cultural traits, language and other soft forms of influence have little appeal outside its borders and likely won’t without the type of radical change that seems improbable. Certainly, China has begun to build warmer relations with much of the developing world, especially in Africa, but the impetus here is commercial, driven by access to the resources that China so badly needs to fuel its hungry economy.

What we need for the future, therefore, is a foreign policy strategy that focuses on those dimensions of soft power that have been sorely neglected in recent years but still hold the promise of an enduring competitive advantage for the United States. This means that rather than building new weapons systems and turning to the military as our first and best option in advancing American interests, we must be investing in our ability to wage a war for the hearts and minds of the world. It does not mean that we should abandon a strong defense or allow our ability to use force in defense of our nation and our interests to erode. We should not, however, continue to chase even greater advantage in hard power (which will likely spend us into long-term weakness and further erode our global dominance) at the expense of developing the tools of peaceful influence.